Modeling the impact of uncertainty on the agricultural sector: scientific and methodological foundations and development scenarios

Abstract

The article examines the scientific and methodological foundations for modeling the impact of uncertainty on the agricultural sector, particularly in the context of growing global challenges and instability. Uncertainty in the agricultural sector is often a consequence of economic, climatic, political, and social factors, which complicates the forecasting of industry development and strategic decision-making. The paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the main types of uncertainty, with particular attention paid to economic and geopolitical uncertainty, climate change, fluctuations in input and output prices, as well as socio-demographic factors such as labor migration.

A methodological approach is proposed for modeling the impact of these factors on the development of the agricultural sector, based on the use of multifactor analysis, scenario planning, and sensitivity analysis. The focus is on the development of scenarios for the agricultural sector under different conditions of uncertainty, which allows for the assessment of possible consequences for key economic activity indicators, such as yields, production volumes, exports, and investments. It is determined that the application of scenario analysis provides more accurate risk forecasting and allows agricultural enterprises and policymakers to better prepare for potential challenges.

The article also contains recommendations on adaptation strategies aimed at reducing the impact of uncertainty on the agricultural sector. In particular, the possibilities of diversifying agricultural production, introducing innovative technologies, as well as risk insurance and the creation of stabilization funds, are explored. The importance of developing state support and investment in sustainable agricultural production to minimize the negative impact of external shocks is considered. The study emphasizes the importance of an interdisciplinary approach to analyzing uncertainty and its impact on the agricultural sector.

The results of the study are of great significance for practitioners in agribusiness, policymakers, and researchers engaged in the sustainable development of agriculture. The use of the proposed methodological tools will help improve risk management efficiency and ensure the sustainable development of the agricultural sector in the face of current challenges.