IMPACT OF HUMAN CAPITAL LOSSES IN IT ENTREPRENEURSHIP ON THE POST-WAR RECOVERY OF UKRAINE’S ECONOMY
Keywords:
IT entrepreneurship, economic potential, human capital, innovative investments, post-war recoveryAbstract
The article is devoted to substantiating the causal impact of human capital losses in IT entrepreneurship due to migration processes on the post-war recovery of the Ukrainian economy based on a multi-criteria model of indicators and the interpretation of lag variables. It is identified that the migration crisis in IT is escalating, which directly affects the prospects for economic growth and complicates the recovery of the national economy in the post-war period. A two-vector concept of the impact of human capital losses in IT entrepreneurship is established: (1) migration outflow to the sector abroad (emigration) with a projection on IT development indicators; (2) the existing economic potential of the state with a projection on post-war recovery. The following indicators of the development of the IT segment are substantiated: economic potential, human capital, innovative investments as an information-analytical basis of the study based on the principles of dynamism and integrity. The results of dynamic modeling of economic potential and post-war recovery of Ukraine for 2018-2023 proved the thesis that indicators of economic potential have a complementary lag interaction. It was established that the strength of the impact of migration of IT specialists on economic potential increases in a time lag of 2-3 years. It is proven that an increase in the balance of migration of IT specialists by 1% leads to a weakening of economic potential by 0.15%. It is substantiated that in the absence of an effective policy for managing migration processes and ensuring re-emigration of the population, the economic effect of using migration transfers will not exceed the economic losses from weakening potential, especially at the stage of post-war recovery of the Ukrainian economy
References
Hmyria A. Ukrainian IT workers in 2024: falling export volumes, salaries, migration and support for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Page. URL: https://thepage.ua/ua/it/yak-sebe-vidchuvaye-rinok-it-ukrayini-v-2024-roci (accessed 24 December 2024).
Sabadyshyna A. What is happening with Ukrainian IT exports and what are the forecasts? Analytics and opinions of industry representatives. DOU. URL: https://dou.ua/lenta/articles/it-export-second-quarter-2024/ (accessed 24 December 2024).
Barvinok V. Yu. (2020) Suchasni tendentsii ta problemy IT-sektoru v Ukraini: pidhotovka ta mihratsiia IT-fakhivtsiv [Current trends and problems of the IT sector in Ukraine: training and migration of IT specialists]. Mechanism of economic regulation, no. 4, pp. 90-102.
Bozhinsky S.V., Sinyavsky O.Yu. (2023) Pidstantsii maibutnoho: innovatsiini tekhnolohii ta perspektyvy rozvytku [Substations of the future: innovative technologies and development prospects]. Young Scientist, no. 8, pp. 1-4.
Zhuravlev O. V., Simachov O. A. (2018) Statystychne doslidzhennia rynku IT-posluh v Ukraini [Statistical study of the IT services market in Ukraine]. Statistics of Ukraine, no. 4, pp. 25-33.
Altynpara A. O., Korogodova O. O. (2019) Autsorsynh yak instrument rozvytku kompanii IT-sektoru Ukrainy v umovakh industrii-4.0 [Outsourcing as a tool for the development of companies in the IT sector of Ukraine in the conditions of industry 4.0]. Economic Bulletin of NTUU "KPI", no. 169, pp. 140-152.
Dovgan L. E., Malik I. P. (2018) Tendentsii ta problemy rozvytku sfery informatsiinykh tekhnolohii v Ukraini: kadrovi aspekty [Trends and problems of development of the sphere of information technologies in Ukraine: personnel aspects]. Economic Bulletin of NTUU "KPI", no. 14, pp. 437-443.
Tymoshenko N. Yu., Ronsky B. Yu. (2018) Problemy ta perspektyvy rozvytku IT-haluzi v Ukraini [Problems and prospects of the development of the IT industry in Ukraine]. Economy and Society, Issue 17, pp. 384-388.
Breus R. (2024) IT in modern science: chalenlenges, achievements and prospects. Proceedings of the ICND Conferences, (19.01.2024; Kryvyi Rih, Ukraine), pp. 313–314.
Vasyltsiv T. G., Lupak R. L., Shtets T. F. (2018) Obgruntuvannia stratehichnykh napriamiv, tsilei ta zakhodiv derzhavnoi polityky realizatsii potentsialu IT-sektoru ekonomiky Ukrainy [Substantiation of strategic directions, goals and measures of state policy for realizing the potential of the IT sector of the economy of Ukraine]. Entrepreneurship and Trade, Issue 23, pp. 56-63.
Martyshchuk A. IT Development in Ukraine: Current Situation and Prospects. Rubryca.URL: https://rubryka.com/blog/rozvytok-it-v-ukrayini/ (accessed 24 December 2024).
IT Research Ukraine 2024: Resilience as the New Reality. Lviv IT Cluster. URL: https://itcluster.lviv.ua/projects/it-research-ukraine/ (accessed 24 December 2024).
Kalaba, R., & Tesfatsion, L. (1996). A multicriteria approach to model specification and estimation. Computational statistics & data analysis, no. 21(2), pp. 193-214.
Dorosh O.I., Hanas L.M., Lutsyshyn O.P. (2018) Polikryterialna model vyboru indykatoriv otsiniuvannia efektiv vid diialsnoti na inozmenykh rynkakh [A multi-criteria model for selecting indicators for assessing the effects of activities on foreign markets]. URL: https://ena.lpnu.ua/bitstreams/e0913109-0a82-445b-b24e-9921ca0b64c6/download (accessed 24 December 2024).
About the economy in simple terms (based on the July 2024 Inflation Report). National Bank of Ukraine. URL: https://bank.gov.ua/en/news/all/prosto-pro-ekonomiku-na-osnovi-materialiv-inflyatsiynogo-zvitu-za-lipen-2024-roku (accessed 24 December 2024).
Digital Tiger: the Power of Ukrainian IT. Tech Ukraine. URL: https://techukraine.org/2024/03/20/digital-tiger-the-power-of-ukrainian-it/ (accessed 24 December 2024).
Ukrainian venture capital and private equity overview: 2022-2023. The year of war. UVCA. URL: https://uvca.eu/userfiles/docs/uvca-mind_ua-dealbook_2022-23-q1-eng.pdf (accessed 24 December 2024).
From startup boom to war challenges: How venture capital market in Ukraine changed over the decade — AIN research. AIN. URL: https://en.ain.ua/2024/10/17/from-startup-boom-to-war-challenges-how-venture-capital-market-in-ukraine-changed-over-the-decade-ain-research/ (accessed 24 December 2024).
