Correlation-regression modeling of the impact of exports, imports and inflation index on the GDP level of Ukraine

Abstract

Analysis of the dependence between the basic indicators of the impact on the gross domestic product, in particular, such as exports, imports and the inflation index, makes it possible not only to understand the interaction between these indicators for the purpose of managing them, but also to determine the ratio of their percentage impact in the macroeconomic context. At the same time, the country's economic growth depends on the balanced development of foreign trade, which includes both exports (which contribute to the inflow of currency and an increase in production) and imports (which provide access to the necessary resources and technologies). Therefore, the article examines the impact of export, import and inflation indicators on changes in the gross domestic product of Ukraine using correlation and regression modeling methods. The analysis of these economic indicators was carried out using statistical tools to identify the density of the relationship between these features and determine their elasticity of impact on GDP. The constructed correlation and regression models were checked for adequacy and compliance with the conditions for the correct application of the least squares method, in particular, for the absence of heteroscedasticity using the Spearman rank test. The obtained value of the correlation coefficient in the single-factor model of the dependence of GDP on the inflation index proved the weakness of the relationship between such features, which is explained by the fact that the NBU has been implementing and continues since 2023 inflation targeting, which involves directing Ukraine's monetary policy to maintain the target inflation level, which makes it impossible for it to have a negative impact on other macroeconomic indicators, in particular on the decline in the GDP level. As a result of the study, the degree of interrelationship between external economic indicators, inflationary processes and the dynamics of the country's economic development was established. The conclusions obtained can be used to formulate recommendations for improving economic policy aimed at stimulating economic growth and increasing the efficiency of managing macroeconomic processes.